ERP Project Roulette

pjoeckel • August 27, 2024

What Gamblers Know that ERP Buyers May Not

No one who understands simple math would play at a roulette table with the odds configured below. Yet companies take the same gamble daily with their ERP selection, implementation, or upgrade projects.

The ERP Project Roulette Wheel of Pain

Let’s examine the “ERP Failure” math behind this roulette wheel and determine whether better options are available.

ERP Selection Tool

Expected Value (EV)


When analyzing an investment, the expected value (EV) anticipates its value at some future point. EV positive indicates a positive future result for an investment decision, while EV negative indicates a loss.

Negative EV and ERP Projects


I'm just warning you: Math is ahead.
This simple but powerful concept applies to a typical ERP selection, implementation, or upgrade project.
Our basic assumptions are as follows based on industry studies:
  • Twenty-five percent of projects are successful, delivering promised functionality on time and within budget. We would argue that these projects do not exist, but we will agree to this definition for simplicity.
  • Twenty-five percent of projects are considered complete failures requiring a complete do-over.
  • Fifty percent of projects fall into the challenged category, meaning they will incur a substantial cost increase due to a lack of delivered functionality or cost and time overruns.

Assuming a typical enterprise ERP project, our expected value for every dollar spent on that project on that project would be:
  • Success: .25 x $1 = .25 cents (we gained total value for our dollar spent)
  • Failure : .25 x - $1 = - .25 cents (we lost our entire value for our dollar spent)
  • Challenged : .5 x $- .50 = -.25 cents (half the time, we received only a fraction of value for our dollar spent)

Adding up these possible outcomes, what is the expected value for a typical ER project? .25 cents -.25 cents -.50 cents = - .50 cents.

Conclusion



We expect to lose fifty cents for every dollar spent on an ERP project or that all ERP projects have a negative EV. This analysis suggests we should never consider starting ERP selection, implementation, or upgrade projects. This negative ERP project EV is why HandsFree ERP is leading the way with new tools, processes, and attitudes applied to these projects.
Contact us today to discuss how we can increase the odds of your ERP project having a positive EV.

HandsFree ERP We are dedicated to ERP project excellence with experienced people, cutting-edge processes, and innovative productivity tools like GYDE365-Discover. Experience - over one hundred years of combined experience selecting and implementing strategic ERP platforms. 

Microsoft ERP Funding

Peter Joeckel 

With an IE/OR engineering degree and enterprise software implementation experience starting at Price Waterhouse, Peter Joeckel has been in the business application selection, implementation, and challenged project turn-around business for over thirty years. He credits his industrial engineering degree with his search for better processes and tools to implement complex business application platforms. 
Most recently, he was the lead HandsFree client advisor in the Circle of ERP Excellence lounge and speaker at the Community Summit North America.

HandsFree ERP is dedicated to supporting clients with their ERP initiatives, enabling companies to seamlessly connect users with their ERP partners. By utilizing skilled professionals, streamlined processes, and cutting-edge tools, HandsFree ERP significantly boosts the success rates of ERP projects.

By Peter Joeckel September 11, 2025
Most organizations think data migration is about moving records from A to B. They're wrong. It's about transforming business information into operational truth. Get it wrong, and you're just digitizing your problems at enterprise scale. If you’re a distributor or manufacturer, your business runs on inventory. Simple as that. Everything else, sales, purchasing, operations, revolves around making sure your inventory data is accurate. And yet, so many companies struggle with messy, outdated, or outright incorrect data, setting themselves up for major headaches when it comes time to implement or upgrade an ERP system. For manufacturers and distributors, inventory is the heart of the business. Everything revolves around managing it effectively. In ERP terms, this involves three core processes: 1. Procure-to-Pay – Bringing inventory in from suppliers. 2. Manufacturing or Handling – Transforming or repackaging inventory. 3. Order-to-Cash – Shipping inventory out to customers. At the heart of the problem are three core data sets: customers, suppliers, and inventory . Clean and accurate data here isn’t optional. It’s essential. Let me paint you a picture of what poor data quality really costs: - Financial processes failing because customer master data is inconsistent - Supply chain grinding to a halt because item masters don't match across systems - Month-end closing taking weeks because nobody trusts the numbers - Compliance risks because audit trails are incomplete or incorrect I've seen implementations declare success after migrating millions of records, only to discover they've built a perfect system running on garbage data. The result? Unreliable reporting, broken processes, and users creating shadow systems to track "real" data. Here's what your implementation partner isn't telling you: Data quality issues compound over time. Every day you operate with poor data, you're creating new problems that will need to be fixed later. It's like trying to build a skyscraper on quicksand - no matter how perfect your architecture, IT IS GOING TO SINK. The hard truth: No amount of system optimization can fix bad data. You're either managing data quality now, or you're managing data problems forever. And in D365 F&O, forever gets expensive very quickly. Bills of Materials: The Science That Trips Everyone Up For manufacturers, one of the biggest trouble spots is the Bill of Materials (BOM) . Think of the BOM as a recipe: it defines exactly how components come together to make a finished product, like a “little red wagon.” Each part must be accounted for, structured correctly, and contain only inventory items. Here’s where things go wrong: Many BOMs have too many levels or include non-inventory items like labor and overhead. Legacy systems often force companies to create Frankenstein part numbers that are confusing and error-prone. Process manufacturers with “recipes” face additional complexity because ingredient quality can fluctuate, affecting output consistency. Moving this messy data into a modern ERP without cleaning it first can turn your new system into a nightmare rather than an improvement. Routing: Where Art Meets Science Beyond the BOM, there’s routing , the step-by-step instructions for manufacturing a product. Routing data is critical for understanding capacity, scheduling, and cost management. Capturing work center setup times, labor, material, and overhead costs is key. Most companies simply don’t have this data organized, which means ERP projects often start off on the wrong foot. Planning Ahead: The Key to ERP Success Waiting until the ERP project is live to clean and organize your data is a recipe for disaster. By then, your best engineers and data experts are fully occupied, leaving little time to fix deep-rooted issues. Forward-thinking manufacturers and distributors start data workshops well before the ERP implementation . These workshops: Identify issues in customer, supplier, and inventory data Clean and structure BOMs and routings properly Establish proper part numbering and chart of accounts setups Doing this ahead of time dramatically increases the chances of a smooth, successful ERP deployment—regardless of which system you choose. Bottom line: messy data doesn’t just slow you down, it can completely derail your ERP implementation. Start early, clean it up, and structure it correctly. Your future self (and your new ERP system) will thank you. 
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